Bluefield, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

040
FXUS61 KRNK 250029
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
829 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture return will showers tonight, then showers and
thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. A cold front will cross the
Appalachian Mountains on Saturday to bring more widespread rain
coverage. High pressure brings drier and cooler weather for
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Chance of rain for Friday

Have adjusted timing and location of the probability of
precipitation based on current radar trends. last few runs of
the HRRR, Consshort, and other convective allowing models were
showing differing locations of scattered showers overnight.
Overall the most favored area for light rain is along and just
east of the southern Blue Ridge. The rain is moving northeast,
however, there is still a layer of stable air from Lewisburg to
Danville and east, so it will be a few more hours before the
rain reaches those areas.

Winds start off from the southeast this evening which will bring
in lower clouds at higher elevations. Have added fog in
overnight for Fancy Gap and in the mountains and foothills.
Temperatures will not cool much overnight, but lowered minimum
temperatures a couple degrees, particularly in Southside Virgina
based on the latest LAV/MAV guidance.



Previous Discussion
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Moisture advection this afternoon will lead to an increase chance of
precipitation for the western portion of the area. A few hundred
CAPE will permit some thunderstorm development but shear is
generally too weak to sustain anything organized or long lasting.

A better chance of precipitation area wide will be on Friday
(tomorrow) as a surface low pressure system approaches and will move
the stationary front to our south northward as a warm front. The
surface high pressure system over New England will also move toward
the Atlantic to allow a smoother passage for the warm front. As the
front passes, widespread precipitation chances increase. Similar to
Thursday, there will be enough instability to permit generic
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are still spread out but the largest
rainfall totals are expected to be in along the southern Blue Ridge
and the more mountainous areas of southwest VA and southeast WV.

Otherwise, conditions will be cloudy as the moisture rolls in for
the rest of Thursday into Friday. Winds will be more southerly by
Friday and highs for the region will be in the 60s and 70s with dew
points in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Moderate to high chances for light rain continues Friday night
through Saturday night.

3) Warm and above normal weather continues.

Widespread light to moderate rain continues Friday evening with the
approach of a southern stream short wave. As this wave crosses the
area, it will push a cold front through on Saturday. A few rumbles
of thunder are possible, especially Friday afternoon and evening.
Severe weather and flooding threats are very low. As far as rain
amounts, the probability of getting more than a quarter of an inch
Friday night through Sunday night is around 60% for the western
mountains, southern Blue Ridge, southside VA, and SE WV, and less
than 30% for our the VA piedmont.

High pressure builds in from the north by Sunday morning bringing an
end to any rain. Light northerly winds, sunny skies, and much drier
air develops for the end of the week. Temperatures will be above
normal Friday and Saturday, but are knocked down some Sunday
(especially for the piedmont) closer to normal values. Saturday
looks quite warm in the piedmont ahead of the front in westerly
flow, but will probably be slightly cooler than what guidance has,
given expected cloud cover and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Moderate confidence in higher chances for rain during the midweek
period.

2) Temperatures remain on the warm side.

Southerly winds, sunny skies, and slightly warmer temperatures
return Monday. Ridging becomes even more amplified Tuesday, and
temperatures respond with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Our
slightly warmer urban areas will approach the upper 80s.

Ridging decreases some for the midweek period as short wave energy
passes by to our north and a weak front sinks into the region. The
front will help bring increasing clouds as well as some scattered
showers and isolated storms to the area, especially Wednesday
afternoon and evening. By Thursday, a more organized system ejects
from the southern Plains and interacts with the boundary, and we
will see more widespread showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Ceilings were just starting to lower to MVFR along the Blue
Ridge south of Roanoke into northwest North Carolina. The rest
of the area was VFR.

Winds start off from the southeast this evening which will bring
in MVFR to IFR clouds, especially at higher elevations. Ceilings
at KROA, KLYH, and KDAN will lower to MVFR after 11Z/7AM, and
after 05Z/1AM at KBLF, KLWB, and KBCB. KBCB is the only TAF at
this time with IFR ceilings in the forecast but confidence is
low. Winds turn to the south overnight, then to the southwest
Friday morning.

Do not expect more than scattered coverage of light rain at any
one time overnight. There is still a layer of stable air from
Lewisburg to Danville and east, so it will be at least until
04Z/ midnight before the rain reaches those areas.


Average confidence for wind, visibility and probability of rain.
Below average confidence for ceiling.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will continue the rainfall chances on Friday night
and Saturday resulting in sub-VFR conditions for all terminals.

A large surface high pressure system is set to take over the
eastern CONUS once the cold front passes early next week to
return all airports to VFR for Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday the chance of showers returns to the mountains, but the
overall chance of MVFR flight conditions is low. East of the
Blue Ridge should remain VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CG
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...AMS/CG